Technical analysis does not work - interview with pro trader Gary Norden | Forex
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I believe most of the technical analysis stuff out there sold to unsuspecting members of the retail trading public does not work. To support my case I interview a very experienced trader who has written a couple of books on the subject. Gary's website can be found at http://www.scalpfutures.com/
Comments
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Hey Peter, I have some advice for you:
When you're interviewing an expert in his/her field, LET THE DAMN EXPERT SPEAK!!!
You were born with TWO ears, but only ONE mouth! Take a freaking HINT from that!!
Sheesh -
You guys need to have a talk with the quantitative research department at Citadel investments. They have it all wrong! I'm a software dev there and we're building machine based learning systems that use a barrage of inputs including some technical indicators i.e. (relative strength, regression lines, etc) depending on the model/system even though most of our trading is based on trading market micro-structure and the order book.
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i'm sitting here using purely technical analysis in the Forex market and very successful happily. Indeed fundamentals are generally priced into the markets so are very limited in their effectiveness.
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What I like about all trading perspectives from all types of traders is that when a trader is consistently profitable he or she seems to knock all other types of trading as unprofitable and usually this is most noticeable when said trader has something to sell........Scalping is not the only way to make coin is it?
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i use ta and fa and risk management and my gut - this weeks profit os 3200 pips - TA works but not by itself - truth is anyone who can incorporate all forms of insight and perspective through any means os better of than the one who days nothing works!!! i too find it strange that these two are doing video in a messy room and some fake sun room / conservatory over grainy skype video etc... kinda not very convincing
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I wish I had stumbled across this video-and you Gary, a month ago when I arrogantly replied to a very sarcastic-even nasty in some spots (if you understood the context and the other article he was referencing)-video by a widely read and highly regarded "CTA" who helps run probably the most widely followed Forex website. (Sorry for the run-on sentence; I'm actually TRYING to condense this). I was introduced to trading in general by my brother after a 23+yr long career in medicine was cut short by an accident. Actually, I had spent a number of years dealing with serious health problems, and other "Life" issues that nearly left me destitute and I sank into a deep depression. ($500K in medical bills, a divorce which revealed a double-life and ended up in Tax court, bankruptcy, (although I was unaware of the bankruptcy in my name for several years-it's called "fraud"), a long fight to force my ex to return our children from a non-extradition, middle-east country, and much more, including, of course, being forced out of my life's dream because of spinal & other injuries-believe me, it all nearly killed me)
Back to trading. I'm now a bit older, mainly housebound & severely limited in options to try and improve my life. Originally, my brother had asked my opinion on some micro-cap biotech stocks he and my nephew had "invested" in. After several months of research almost a year ago, I realized I had no interest in the "penny stock" market and was overwhelmed by the number of sham and trash companies-not to mention the so-called "experts" and "mentors". I had begun studying the structure of the world's financial systems and was drawn into studying currency trading. It was something I could start on my meager disability income, while learning more about the overall market in preparation for managing a rather large amount of equity in the next 5 years or so. That was 9 months ago. After several worthless "courses", realizing this market isn't any better, with shams and scams in every nook and cranny; I was extremely lucky to have an opportunity to take an in-depth Fundamentals course by a "young" man who actually gives it to you straight-up. A rarity in this field, unfortunately. He actually has a proven (verified by Barclays) track record and things finally began making sense. Perhaps it's my age, or background in the sciences; but technical analysis has seemed to me since I began researching trading in general-to be more hocus-locus, wishful thinking and coincidence all rolled into one non-sensical package. Even before I took this course on fundamentals, I actually found myself searching for other people, books and articles disproving their Bats, "inverse head & shoulders", (seriously? Talk about "curve-fitting"!), and supposed "newly discovered" patterns of Eagles, Fish...and one gentleman swears by his "see-saws". When I tried to explain these things to my kids-in their late-20's, early-30's-they understandably thought I was either joking with them, or that the people making patterns with prices on different time-frame charts to supposedly predict future movements, had a screw loose somewhere. (My Son: "Mum, do these folks even know basic economics? What about when the Central Bank's do something? Or George Soros decides to exchange half a trillion British Pounds into US Dollars?" When I told him that several well-known, supposedly "well-respected" Technical "Gurus" instruct their students to "ignore all those "fundamentals"-they don't matter; if you don't ignore them, you WILL go broke!"; he wanted to know how well their "patterns" predicted Brexit) So sorry for this long comment, but back to where I began. Unfortunately, after I responded to that "CTA's" video; he responded rather curtly to me. And I'm sorry to say I just let it go. Others had begun jumping in, and being I'm still just a "babe in the woods", I didn't feel it was appropriate to continue that disagreement-especially since it WAS on his website. I haven't yet begun live trading. I've had a few pretty bad weeks which was due to me trying to "find a shortcut", not doing the required research-and mainly taking trades while dealing with 3 hospitalizations and 2 surgeries-hopefully the last of which was this morning. I do pretty good for a "newbie", (or so I'm told :), when I am disciplined and focused in both my research and trading. After a few days of R & R, which I'll be catching up on some reading, I plan on buckling back down, getting back into my "groove" and hopefully, go live to test the waters in REAL-Time, and determine if this is what I want to continue to throw my whole self in. I'm not delusional, and I'm not even aiming for "wealth"-or even a steady income in the near future. I AM, however, still excited, my personal physician and friend says he hasn't seen this spark in my eyes since medical school. This crazy, even controversial path of forex trading has already given me something I honestly thought I'd completely lost: HOPE! And for the first time in years, I'm having FUN again!! As strange as it seems to many people, I tend to get VERY excited & hyper-focused when I'm learning something new. And even my kids are excited to see me like this again-even if they do have to occasionally listen to Mum rant about "discombobulated Janet Yellen"!! I'll be subscribing to both of your channels (Peter AND Gary!), looking for your books & writings and absorbing as much as I possibly can; Thank You for motivating me to get back on track! (As soon as I take a pain pill, get some sleep & get through the next few days! ;) -
of course this guy does not know how to use TA he just fucking told you he front runs small traders..........GTFO...front running does not disprove TA.......
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as an options market maker.............so he was a criminal.........
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Hi Peter, thanks for the video - as harsh as it may have sounded to some of the commenters, myself included (I only started fx learning 4 months ago) it was refreshing to hear a much different perspective from the usual one which boasts double digit returns and only focuses on the best (but rare) case scenarios.
I'm curious however, as to what you define TA to be. Are you referring to mathematically based indicators like moving averages, oscillators, pivot/ fib levels, etc? Or are you referring to TA as also encompassing naked price action analysis and historically visible support/ resistance levels? Personally, I have been learning simple raw price action and S/R analysis and demo trading it for a little over a month now. So far I'm at break even, but having a Statistical academic background, I need to have at least a few hundred trades in the sample to start questioning the methodology and my execution.
My other question is, if you believe markets are mostly random with only some structure the minority of the time, then unless you are an insider/ big money manager who creates that structure (ie Levy flight), what is your reason for trading? I'm genuinely just curious to hear more from you, I've watched a lot of your videos and enjoy them quite a lot. In fact I have a lot more questions, perhaps I can shoot you an email? Thanks -
Trend lines , fibs extensions, retracements ....linear regression and price action.....and stochastics can help you a little but most of all is risk management. .....
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Despite the truth that these people say, I can definitely guarantee that they are clueless like fico fico said.
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Technical analysis is for amateurs , like fundamental analysis.......only price action is important .
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Trading might be addictive but I thank God for letting me go through the experience of being a trader. It gives you the confidence to be sceptical of this pithy world and the policymakers therein.
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Spoken like a true trader who doesn't profit.
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Nice, let's gamble? :D
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If u say T/A or F/A don't work then guess what u don't know how to trade there for don't quite your 9/5 rookies.
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with all due respect, the supposition that technical analysis 'doesn't work' is based on university research. Not university analysis pls! Pls try and come up with a logical argument not random 'facts' that fit your bias
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This is why you use T.A. patterns with STATISTICAL significance, obviously most techniques will not work.
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Ridiculous comment and assumption stating technical analysis is useless is based on nothing but one traders viewpoint... there are many ways to trade and traders using stars who make money... saying otherwise is contracting their account balances which is the true proof of concept
On an interview you ask and let the person respond. It is so annoying the fact that you do not let the person to answer your questions. I gave up within a few minutes of watching your video even though it seemed to be interesting.